FOR THE WEEK OF JUNE 09, 2025

Hurricane season arrives and it could be more active than usual – 'a worrisome trend'

Weather experts (called meteorologists) and public safety officials in parts of the U.S. have reasons for extra concern about this year's Atlantic hurricane season. The main worry is that forecasters predict an above-average number of storms. That outlook is released while communities in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas still are recovering from Hurricanes Beryl, Debby and Milton last year. In addition, spending and budget cuts hit the National Weather Service and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

The storm risk season began last week, though strongest hurricanes typically hit in September, October and November. Ocean heat fuels storms, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects more of them than usual – a 60% chance of an above-normal season. The federal agency predicts 13 to 19 named storms of tropical storm strength, with winds of up to 74 miles per hour. Of those, six to 10 are expected to become hurricanes exceeding 74 mph. And three to five of those hurricanes are expected to reach Category 3 (111 to 129 mph) or more. NOAA's forecast is similar to others. (In 2024, there were 18 named storms in the Atlantic basin, and five hit the U.S. as hurricanes.)

Average temperatures worldwide have risen for decades, an environmental and economic danger linked to emissions from burning fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas). "The sticky heat of the Gulf is a worrisome trend that’s undoubtedly fueling the spate of big hurricane hits along the Gulf Coast over the past decade or so," says Michael Lowry, a TV weathercaster in Miami. A 2024 report from the National Academies of Sciences warned that the Gulf Coast could stay in "perpetual disaster recovery" mode.

Piled atop these concerns are substantial federal budget and staffing cuts to agencies that forecast storms and respond to affected areas. The Weather Service has lost nearly 600 people to layoffs or retirements. The government also has reduced long-term NOAA research into climate data and now launches fewer weather balloons. Balloon data are crucial for understanding atmospheric patterns that determine where a hurricane will go and who might need to evacuate or take other precautions. Separately, the Federal Emergency Management Agency had lost about a quarter of its full-time staff, including one-fifth of the coordinating officers who manage responses to large-scale disasters. Kristi Noem, the Department of Homeland Security secretary, says the agency remains prepared for hurricane season.

Weathercaster says: "Over 60 percent of the Gulf [of Mexico] is at record or near-record warmth for the time of year, and waters east of Florida and around the Bahamas are as warm as we've seen them for the start of any hurricane season in the satellite era." -- Michael Lowry of WPLG in Miami. .

Federal official says: "NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings. . . . We have never been more prepared for hurricane season." -- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick

Researcher says: "It remains to be seen what the impacts of reduced staffing across relevant NOAA offices and agencies will be. But any loss of expertise, data collection capabilities and around-the-clock monitoring is troubling during critical, high-impact situations." -- Brian McNoldy, University of Miami tropical storm specialist

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